October 26 forecast: Where’s Sandy going?

Yesterday, an epiphany hit me. This is the first time this country has paid more attention to a Sandy since the movie Grease came out!

All joking aside, this is a pretty big deal we’re looking at over the next few days, and it looks like we’ll be south of the worst of it this time. That could change, so keep it on the blog for the latest information. I’ll try to be either here or on twitter and Facebook updating on the storm throughout the weekend and into next week.

Part of the issue that’s got everyone all worked up isn’t even Sandy. It’s a cold front that is moving through the state, and will be by us by the end of the day tomorrow. The low pressure way up in Canada that’s associated with this front is going to combine with Sandy and make early next week miserable for someone on the east coast. Right now the best bet looks to be a landfall for Sandy anywhere from the Delmarva peninsula to New Jersey, as far north as New York and Long Island.

Gathered together, Sandy and this low pressure (I’m tempted to call it John Travolta) will cause lots of different weather issues for lots of folks between now and Thursday. Some folks near the coast at landfall will get very heavy rain and strong winds for a prolonged period of time. Up in West Virginia they could be measuring snow with yardsticks before it’s all said and done. And there’s every possibility the entire system could spawn tornadoes and have enough wind to knock trees onto power lines and keep people in the dark for days. If you know someone from Maine down to Virginia Beach over toward Pittsburgh and into the mountains of West Virginia, it might be wise to give them a call and let them know to tune in to their local TV or radio weather folks. This storm could be historic, and people will need to be prepared. That said, if all the computer models are wrong and Sandy randomly drifts out to sea, that means people will be prepared for the next one. So there’s no reason for anyone to get ready for the worst at this point.

As for us, we will start at the beginning. Tonight will feature cloudy skies, and a slight chance of rain as that cold front gets closer. Look for lows tonight around 51.

Most of the rain is behind the front, which means we will probably see a few rain showers on Saturday as well. That said, it won’t be an all-day rain for sure. Cloudy skies will keep our high temperatures down to around 62 tomorrow. Saturday night should be cloudy with a few scattered showers possible as well. Look for lows Sunday morning around 45.

From there, it won’t get much warmer. The front will have moved through and will be interacting with Sandy by Sunday. Those two things will start to bring in the cold air out of Canada, about like pushing the cold water button on the water cooler. That will make Sunday a partly to mostly cloudy day, and not warm. There could be a few rain showers during the day as well. Look for highs only around 54 for Sunday.

Monday will be cloudy and cool, with Sandy still out in the Atlantic. There will be some scattered rain showers possible, and some of that snow at times, especially in the mountains. Highs on Monday will only get up to around 49 degrees.

Tuesday morning is when Sandy appears to be making landfall, and that could happen anywhere from Cape Cod to Virginia Beach. As it looks right now, a track that goes more to the north will give us better weather. If the storm makes landfall farther south, we could see a lot more in terms of rain, snow, sleet, freezing rain, thundersnow, high winds, and all sorts of weather. This weekend will be very interesting.

Our friends at the National Weather Service have been launching about double the amount of weather balloons that they normally launch, because that data will help our computer models predict where Sandy might go in the next few days. Even considering that, it will still be a day or two, perhaps even Monday night, before we can do an exact determination on where Sandy will land and who will get what from it.

Right now, through Wednesday morning, precipitation amounts go from around three-quarters of an inch in our southern areas to up to 2 inches of liquid toward Tazewell, Virginia near the West Virginia border as things go right now. Some of that, especially in southwest Virginia, could very well fall as snow. That could be anywhere from four inches of snow, to possibly 8 inches or more through Monday.

For the Bristol-Kingsport-Johnson City area proper, look for mostly rain with this right now, with a chance of some snow showers Monday night and possibly Tuesday and Wednesday. As it stands now, we’re at a very small chance in getting four inches of snow, mainly because the ground has been so warm lately.

I stress again that Sandy’s track means absolutely everything as to what happens early next week as far as whether we’re going to get what kind of precipitation, how much, or what the wind gusts will be like. Right now the strongest winds here look to happen late Monday into Tuesday.

Keep checking the Tri-Cities Weather Blog in the coming days as I’ll be able to refine all of this and have a better idea of what’s going to happen. As I think I’ve said about four times already, it’s going to be really hard to figure out what’s going to happen until we finally get Sandy onshore, and then we can deal with the storm after that happens.

The weekend doesn’t look too bad, all things considered, and there won’t be rain all day either Saturday and Sunday. Get out there and have a great weekend!