January 24, 2021 #TriCitiesWx Forecast

January typically features our coldest weather of the year. In fact, we just passed the anniversary of the coldest recorded day in our history not long ago. This forecast appears to be closer to the warmer end of the spectrum for at least the first half of the week. Welcome to the Tri-Cities Weather Blog forecast for tonight through Thursday!

It’s been a cloudy Sunday, but the rain has stayed away for the most part. That should be the case most of the way through the day, then some heavy rain develops for Monday. Here’s the outlook:

  • Tonight-Mostly cloudy, rain develops late. Low 38.
  • Monday-Clouds and fog with rain showers. High 55.
  • Monday night-Rain likely, possible a thunderstorm. Low 48.
  • Tuesday-Mostly cloudy, a few morning rain showers. High 64.
  • Wednesday-Partly cloudy, some scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs near 60.
  • Thursday-Morning flurries, then partly to mostly cloudy, windy and cold. High 38.

So, it appears that we have two systems to contend with this week. The first one finishes off its effect on our weather Tuesday, then another one starts late Wednesday. A warm front comes through tomorrow afternoon, which will keep the first batch and most of the second one as rain for the majority of the Tri-Cities. But it also provides well warmer than average temperatures, too, for the first half of the week.

From there, things start changing, and the second system on Wednesday afternoon brings rain and then falling temperatures. We’ll go from highs 15 degrees above average (46) on Wednesday to 5-10 degrees below that on Thursday.

The best chance of heavy rain appears to be Monday and Monday night. Don’t be shocked to hear a rumble of thunder Monday night as the cold front moves in. That will be the time of the heaviest rain, it appears.

We should dry out for most of Tuesday, and a lot of Wednesday before rain returns. That system coming from the southwest will move across the South later this week, bringing us rain and then falling temperatures once it passes. We probably won’t see 40 degrees on Thursday, and some of the computer output indicates that we might be lucky to get above freezing.

From there, it appears that the extended forecast looks dry, with temperatures warming up as we get into next weekend. I’ll have more on that in the coming days, as usual. Thanks for checking here for the forecast. Have a great week!

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January 21, 2021 #TriCitiesWx Forecast

In a time of unpredictable things, we can guarantee one thing. The weather is going to keep us forecasters on our toes. Waking up to snow this morning wasn’t a terrible surprise, but it took longer than expected to get things to change to rain. We’re going to have calmer weather in this Tri-Cities Weather Blog forecast!

The snow did cause some issues early today, with some schools closing early and some snow on the roads at times. Since that has come to an end, I don’t see snow in the forecast at least through Monday. Here’s the outlook for a few details:

  • Tonight-Mostly cloudy with some morning fog. Low 32.
  • Friday-Cloudy skies early, partly cloudy by afternoon. High 48.
  • Friday night-Mostly clear. Low 23.
  • Saturday-Mostly sunny. High 42.
  • Sunday-Partly cloudy, with a few rain showers possible late. Highs near 50.
  • Monday-Rain likely. High 53.

A cold front departs our area this evening, and that will leave high pressure to eventually clear things out, starting tomorrow. From there on, dry weather is likely, with cold nights and chilly days.

Storm systems will be developing southwest of here over the next few days, and that will start changing our weather Sunday. Out ahead of the front, things will warm up on Sunday, with rain chances increasing through the afternoon and Sunday night. That system brings more rain to our area on Monday as well, which could make driving to work interesting.

That’s the forecast for the next few days. Have a fantastic Friday and weekend!

January 20, 2021 #TriCitiesWx Forecast

Welcome to the Tri-Cities Weather Blog forecast! It’s going to be a quick one, so here we go, starting with the outlook:

  • Tonight-Mostly cloudy, snow showers possible toward morning. Lows near 30.
  • Thursday-Mostly cloudy, any snow changes to scattered rain showers. High 48.
  • Thursday night-Mostly cloudy, low 32.
  • Friday-Decreasing clouds. High 47.
  • Saturday-Mostly sunny. High 43.
  • Sunday-Partly cloudy, a small chance of rain in the afternoon. Highs near 50.

The interesting part of the forecast is clearly late tonight through tomorrow, as a cold front breezes through here. We’ll see things start as snow for pretty much everyone toward sunrise, if not a touch sooner. Once the sun comes up, things will warm up to above freezing quickly enough to mix the snow with rain before changing altogether and eventually ending before the day ends.

From there, we’ll dry out and sort of clear out for a couple days into the weekend. Chances of rain on Sunday don’t look as good today as they did earlier in the week, and things look warmer as well. Let’s hope that trend continues.

Look for another update on the weekend weather tomorrow. Have a great Thursday!

January 19, 2021 #TriCitiesWx Forecast

The sun was out a lot today, which definitely is a pleasant surprise for this forecaster. That’s the state of weather forecasting, with surprises both on the good and bad side sometimes. That said, it appears that a little snow continues to appear in this Tri-Cities Weather Blog forecast for the rest of the week!

From time to time, forecasting for what I think I know doesn’t work out. The computers told me we’d have a decent amount of sunshine today, but I didn’t believe it. Based on having lived in Bristol for over four decades, I figured the clouds would hang on today. That didn’t happen! We ended up with a good day with a lot of sun, and it’s always better to have errors to where the weather is good!

All that said, here’s the quick outlook to get us through Saturday:

  • Tonight-Cloudy skies, some flurries near sunrise. Low 28.
  • Wednesday-Mostly cloudy, some flurries or mountain snow showers early. High 44.
  • Wednesday night-Mostly cloudy, some snow showers possible toward morning. Lows near 30.
  • Thursday-Mostly cloudy, some snow showers to start, changing to rain. High 46.
  • Friday-Becoming partly cloudy. High 48.
  • Saturday-Mostly sunny. High 44.

Cold fronts are breezing through here almost every other day now, but that might be ending soon. Once this next cold front gets out of here, there are a couple nice days ahead.

Before we get there, some light snow showers appear in the forecast tomorrow morning, then for much of Thursday. I’m not expecting much accumulation in the Tri-Cities with this system, mainly because of the change from snow to rain. There could be a couple inches of snow in the mountains, though, where temperatures will be colder longer on Thursday.

After that, it’s high pressure time in Tennessee. And adjacent areas, too. That will clear the sky and keep things dry as we head into the weekend. Having said that, another system will be here just in time to make it a soggy finish to the weekend on Sunday.

That’s it for now. Have a great Wednesday!

January 18, 2020 #TriCitiesWx Forecast

There are two cold fronts on the way during the course of the rest of the week, but thankfully, moisture is at a premium as they come through. That means we will see a little snow or rain at times this week, but not too much. Welcome to the Tri-Cities Weather Blog forecast for tonight through Friday!

Here’s the outlook, featuring the basic forecast elements first, then I’ll follow with a short discussion:

  • Tonight-Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 28.
  • Tuesday-Cloudy for much of the day, a small chance of rain in the afternoon. High 45.
  • Tuesday night-Mostly cloudy. Lows near 30.
  • Wednesday-A few morning snow showers, otherwise partly to mostly cloudy. High 42.
  • Thursday-Mostly cloudy. A couple snow showers early, likely rain in the afternoon. High 47.
  • Friday-Cloudy with a small chance of rain, possible morning snow. High 45.

The forecast does include a lot of things happening, but the intensity of those things is the big deal for the next four days, or perhaps the lack thereof. A cold front comes through quickly tomorrow afternoon, then again on Thursday. So that will bring a brief shot of rain or snow, then a small temperature drop. Then a day later, a mostly dry day, and the process continues to cycle.

The difference between rain and snow that I don’t often have time to talk about on the radio is that the colder parts of the day (mornings, typically), will have better chances for snow, while the afternoon will have better chances of rain. And from time to time, there’s a possible mix between the two.

The other difference is elevation. The higher up you go in the atmosphere, the colder it generally gets. So folks like Mountain City and Boone might get more snow than the rest of us. There are other meteorological factors at work here, but that’s the factor here. So, rain for some might be snow for others once it arrives. Your mileage may vary.

Keep that in mind over the course of the rest of the week. Here in the Tri-Cities, a little light morning snow might happen, then whatever falls in the afternoon is likely to be rain. Meanwhile the higher elevations might see a longer dose of snow due to cooler temperatures. Sometimes that snow could be heavier because wind hitting the mountain must go up, causing better chances of more snow that way, too. That’s the big reason why any snow event prediction tends to feature more snow in the mountains than the valleys.

In the Tri-Cities, I’m not worried about much accumulation, but driving in the snow could get iffy from time to time. Up in the mountains, though, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a couple inches of snow added to what’s up there during the week.

This time of year, it takes a long time to talk about weather, depending on who is watching or listening. Someone from Shady Valley might have completely different weather than up in Tazewell, Virginia, or Gate City or Greeneville. So keep that in mind during the winter…because it’s really hard to say all that in half a minute!

Thanks for checking here for the forecast…have a great Tuesday!