Weekend Snow Update #2

December 7, 2018 Leave a comment

Interesting things are afoot weather wise this weekend, with all forms of winter precipitation in play at this point starting Saturday night through Monday. While I think a lot of it will be snow and that might cause problems especially on Sunday, things look a lot better than they did yesterday. Here’s the update!

First of all, let’s get the outlook out there and then I’ll discuss things further below that.

  • Tonight-Partly cloudy. low 28.
  • Saturday-Partly to mostly cloudy, a small chance of rain late. High 44.
  • Saturday night-Mostly cloudy, light rain changes to snow. Low 32.
  • Sunday-Snow likely, could mix with ice or rain at times. High 38.
  • Monday-Cloudy with scattered showers. High 37.
  • Tuesday-Partly to mostly sunny. high 42.

We’re north of any rain right now, which is definitely a good thing. We’ll have dry weather tonight and that will follow up through most of tomorrow. Light rain is how this whole thing should start either late tomorrow afternoon or Saturday evening.

From there, things get a little more sticky than it looked yesterday. What I know for sure is that the rain will change to snow overnight into Sunday morning. Also what hasn’t changed is that there’s still a good chance of accumulating snow on Sunday. All of these things are almost definite at this point.

What’s changed is the temperatures on Sunday. A lot of the computer models are confused. Some keep temperatures in the 30s with snow all day Sunday, while a few bring in enough warmth to mix the snow with rain or ice from time to time. Any mixing of precipitation types will definitely diminish our final snow total by the time the snow stops late Monday.

So, I’ve dropped my prediction, but only slightly as far as snowfall is concerned Saturday night through Monday. Right now, the Tri-Cities should end up at 3-5 inches of snow by the end of the whole thing. Up in the mountains (where Winter Storm Warnings are up right now), there could be lots more than that since it should stay all snow up there. Higher elevations could get up to a foot of snow before it’s all said and done. There are possible higher amounts near Asheville, too.

The confidence in this forecast, I have to say, is minimal. Hopefully the next computer runs will be a bit clearer, and I’ll get on the blog tomorrow to bring a new forecast.

So what to do for now? Prepare for the worst. What do you need if we get 6-8 inches of snow? Make a list and go get it by Saturday evening, then be where you’re going to be before snow starts piling up. That way you’ll be ready, whether we get flurries or half a foot of snow or more.

Also, stay tuned to the blog and follow me on Twitter @wxmc. I’ll have updates here before the storm, most updates will be on Twitter during it, and then a final snow report will be posted here after things are all said and done.

More updates are forthcoming throughout the weekend!

Categories: Daily Forecast, Winter

Weekend Snow Update #1

December 6, 2018 Leave a comment

Posts have been running all over social media about the chances of snow this weekend. Well, as usual, those folks posting computer model forecasts have brought about all the questions about this coming storm system coming out of Texas.

First, the forecast for the next few days. Nothing exciting, maybe a few flurries tonight or Friday morning. We’ll have mostly cloudy skies otherwise, all the way through the majority of Saturday. That’s when the rain should begin, late in the day. We’ll have highs in the low 40’s and lows near 30 between now and then.

As mentioned, rain starts Saturday either late in the afternoon or early evening. That will change to snow overnight for all of us. Of course, in the higher elevations, that change will happen quicker, and they’ll get more snow. Everything should be fine for most of the area through Saturday evening.

That’s not the case for Sunday, it appears. Snow will likely accumulate starting Saturday night, and for most of the day on Sunday before tapering off on Monday. The National Weather Service office in Morristown has us under a Winter Storm Watch effective Saturday night through Monday at noon. That will likely get upgraded to a warning by Friday.

So…how much snow? You may have seen folks online post computer models showing anything from a foot in the Tri-Cities to 23 inches in Boone. Those models take in every single bit of moisture in the atmosphere and dump that into the amount of precipitation that’s possible. The mere falling of snow and rain will diminish those numbers to some degree, as will any rain to snow transitions that happen.

Considering all of that, Saturday night through Monday could see 4-6 inches of snow in the Tri-Cities, with less snow south and west of the I-81/I-26 interchange. In the Southwest Virginia and North Carolina mountains, 8 inches to a foot of snow is possible. It’s not a linear transition from the valleys to the mountains, so your mileage may vary at each individual location. Some may stop at 3 or less, and others might pop up at 8 or 10 inches.

Power outages are possible, especially with higher snow totals. Temperatures look to stay in the 30’s for the most part, so that could be wet snow. That kind of snow is heavier than the fluffy stuff in colder conditions, which may result in trees coming down on power lines or that kind of thing. That’s the big worry in situations like this. I don’t think widespread power outages are likely, but have a plan for what to do in case that becomes a reality.

The bottom line is, snow is coming, so take the next couple days to prepare, getting supplies you need by the end of Saturday so you’re good to go. By all means, be wherever you want to be Saturday evening so you don’t get stuck somewhere you don’t want to be on Sunday.

I’ll post updates to the forecast here periodically through the storm, so make sure to bookmark the blog!

Categories: Winter

December 3, 2018 #TriCitiesWx Forecast

December 3, 2018 Leave a comment

It’s been warmer than average the past couple days! That made for a great start to December, but we’ll see clouds mute that start in the coming days, helping to bring cooler weather back in. Welcome to the Tri-Cities Weather Blog forecast through Friday!

There’s a lot of noise about this weekend, thanks to certain people on Facebook. There’s a lot of uncertainty about that, and there’s a week to get through before we even worry about that. So we’ll start with the outlook through Friday:

  • Tonight-Increasing clouds, with a few flurries after midnight. Low 32.
  • Tuesday-Mostly cloudy, some sprinkles or flurries. Highs near 40.
  • Tuesday night-Clouds, with sprinkles or flurries. Low 28.
  • Wednesday-Mostly cloudy with some snow showers. High 35.
  • Thursday-Partly cloudy. High 44.
  • Friday-Partly to mostly cloudy, a small chance of rain. High 44.

Clouds will be moving in from the northwest tonight, and that’s the change from 10-15 degrees above average to that far below average in the coming days. Those clouds will be here through Wednesday, with occasional light snow flurries or sprinkles off and on throughout.

We’ll kick the clouds out on Thursday for a nice day, and most of Friday should be cool and rain-free. It does look like there’s a small chance some rain could creep in late on Friday.

That’s thanks to a system that’s gotten a lot of news on Facebook recently, talking about possible snow this coming weekend. That system will come from the southwest, it appears, but that’s basically all we know at this point. When, how far north, what temperatures will be, and all of that are very uncertain right now.

In fact, for every computer model people posted showing next weekend’s snow forecast yesterday, there’s one today that says it’s either going to rain or miss our area to the south altogether. So don’t pay too much attention to the weekend right now. Let’s give it a few days, and by then we’ll hopefully have a better idea as to what kind of precipitation we get, how much, and when.

So for now, prepare for colder weather and some flurries in the coming days. Have a great Tuesday!

Categories: Daily Forecast

November 30, 2018 #TriCitiesWx Forecast

November 30, 2018 Comments off

At midnight tonight, we’ll be eleven months through 2018 already! The penultimate day of the month wasn’t a fun one weather wise today, with all the clouds, rain and fog. More is on the way into December, but not for long. Welcome to the Tri-Cities Weather Blog forecast through Tuesday!

It’s gotten more foggy in Blountville  as the day has gone on today near the airport. That will likely continue tonight with off-and-on scattered showers. Rain continues tomorrow, but we’ll get a break late in the weekend. Here’s the outlook:

  • Tonight-Clouds and fog, some light rain. Low 48.
  • Saturday-Cloudy with rain showers. Highs near 60.
  • Saturday night-Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Low 48.
  • Sunday-Partly cloudy, maybe a rain shower. High 65.
  • Monday-Partly cloudy. Highs near 60.
  • Tuesday-Cloudy with a few rain showers. High 48.

Low pressure is not far away in southeast Kentucky right now. That’s causing the mess of a weather day we’ve had today. The front coming from it gets through here early Sunday morning. That will push the rain out of here.

Then for Sunday afternoon through Monday, we’ll have unseasonably warm weather and a lack of rain. Highs will be in the mid 60’s for Sunday and close to 60 on Monday. Our average is in the low 50’s.

A new system arrives Tuesday, and may bring some rain by then. In fact, there’s a small chance it could change to snow during the late afternoon. I’ll have another forecast by that time with all the details.

Thanks for checking here for the forecast, have a great weekend!

Categories: Daily Forecast

November 26, 2018 #TriCitiesWx Forecast

November 26, 2018 Comments off

Cold weather is moving in as we speak, with chances of snow in the near future. Welcome to the Tri-Cities Weather Blog forecast for this week!

It’s hard to believe, but our high temperature for today will end up being 56 degrees…that’s how warm it was at 5AM! Behind the front, though, the cold air has come rushing in. Late this afternoon, we’ve cooled down into the upper 30’s, with some already near or just below freezing in the mountains. Here’s the outlook for the rest of the week:

  • Tonight-Cloudy skies, a few light snow showers. Low 25.
  • Tuesday-Mostly cloudy with some flurries. High 33.
  • Tuesday night-Cloudy with snow flurries. Low 20.
  • Wednesday-Partly cloudy. Highs near 40.
  • Thursday-Partly cloudy. High 47.
  • Friday-Mostly cloudy, a few rain showers. High 54.

Our average high temperature this time of year is 54 degrees. So we’ll be way below that tomorrow, but gain little by little toward that mark through the rest of the week. Flurries should persist off and on through tomorrow night, with no snow accumulation likely except maybe in the higher elevations.

Clouds at least partly get out of here for Wednesday and Thursday, two dry days that will bring temperatures back up somewhat. By Friday, rain chances move in as we finally get temperatures back toward what we typically see this time of year.

I’ll have a look at the weekend forecast with the next blog. Have a great Tuesday!

Categories: Daily Forecast
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