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January 1, 2019 #TriCitiesWx Forecast

January 1, 2019 Comments off

Happy New Year! We’re leaving one of the wettest years on record for the Tri-Cities and the warmest December 31 on record, too. Warmer than average temperatures will lead us into the early days of 2019 as well. Welcome to the Tri-Cities Weather Blog forecast for tonight through Friday!

2018 was the fourth wettest year in the Tri-Cities since records started being taken in 1937. 2003, 2015, and 1950 are the only wetter years than the 54.23 inches of rain in 2018. And yesterday we reached 75 degrees, beating the recorded record for the last day of the year, set in 1951 at 74. As mentioned above, warmer than average temperatures and some rain feature in the forecast for the next three days. Here’s the outlook:

  • Tonight-Mostly cloudy, a few sprinkles possible. low 38.
  • Wednesday-Partly to mostly cloudy. High 54.
  • Wednesday night-Clouds and scattered rain showers. Low 42.
  • Thursday-Morning rain showers, partly cloudy late. High 52.
  • Friday-Cloudy with rain showers, especially in the afternoon. High 57.

It’s a cloudy day right now (as I type this at 2:30 PM), and it wouldn’t surprise me terribly if a few raindrops fall from the clouds at times for the rest of the afternoon, or tonight for that matter. Overall, though, we’ll have dry conditions through at least Wednesday afternoon.

By then, we might see rain starting before sunset, but the best chances of rain are thanks to low pressure that will move south of our area tomorrow. We’ll have better chances of rain as that happens, so I’m thinking it’ll be evening before most of the rain hits, and then scattered showers will continue into Thursday morning.

We’ll get a break Thursday afternoon into Friday until another system moves over top of us by late Friday afternoon. That will bring rain starting late morning or early afternoon. Showers will be likely at that point from then into early Saturday.

As it looks right now, the weekend could be dry, except for early rain on Saturday. I’ll keep an eye on that and update the forecast as I know more about that in the coming days.

Thanks for checking here for the forecast! Remember, you can always hear a short version of this forecast on 97.3 Love FM, 96.3 FM The Possum, and 91.5 The Blessing WHCB. You’ll hear my voice at least once an hour on all the stations. You can also listen to each station online. Check the right side of the page for website links to get to our streaming.

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Categories: Daily Forecast

December 23, 2018 #TriCitiesWx Forecast

December 23, 2018 Comments off

Christmas is coming! I know that’s stating the obvious with two days left, and it does feel that way as we start to think about a new year in a week or so. Temperatures are about at our average right now, but a warming trend is in sight! Welcome to the Tri-Cities Weather Blog forecast for this week!

Scattered showers are happening right now across the Tri-Cities, and those should be gone by the time we see Monday morning. After some morning fog, things look up for the first half of the week. Here’s the outlook:

  • Tonight-A few rain showers, otherwise cloudy with some morning fog. Low 28.
  • Monday-Morning fog becomes a partly cloudy afternoon. High 44.
  • Monday night-Partly cloudy. Low 25.
  • Tuesday-Partly sunny. High 48.
  • Wednesday-Partly sunny. High 53.
  • Thursday-Increasing clouds, some afternoon rain showers. High 55.
  • Friday-Clouds and rain likely. High 62.

A cold front is west of us right now, and that will move through tonight. So expect scattered showers for the rest of the day and into the morning hours before the front passes. Some patchy fog is possible toward daylight.

Once we get rid of that fog, we’ll have high pressure and a decent chance at some sunshine for a while. It’ll be partly cloudy on Christmas Eve afternoon with temperatures close to average, then we warm up to the upper 40’s for Christmas Day. Yes, that means no snow is likely this year…which is amazing considering what was happening two weeks ago!

After that, we’ll see low 50’s and a dry day Wednesday before rain arrives Thursday. Clouds will increase throughout Thursday, with rain likely in the afternoon. Highs will be in the mid 50’s. Rain continues on Friday, ahead of the cold front will be a warm front, and that will push highs into the 60’s on Friday afternoon.

Thanks for checking here for the forecast! My next forecast comes up later this week, so keep an eye out for it. I hope you have a wonderful Christmas!

Categories: Daily Forecast

Weekend Snow Update #2

December 7, 2018 Comments off

Interesting things are afoot weather wise this weekend, with all forms of winter precipitation in play at this point starting Saturday night through Monday. While I think a lot of it will be snow and that might cause problems especially on Sunday, things look a lot better than they did yesterday. Here’s the update!

First of all, let’s get the outlook out there and then I’ll discuss things further below that.

  • Tonight-Partly cloudy. low 28.
  • Saturday-Partly to mostly cloudy, a small chance of rain late. High 44.
  • Saturday night-Mostly cloudy, light rain changes to snow. Low 32.
  • Sunday-Snow likely, could mix with ice or rain at times. High 38.
  • Monday-Cloudy with scattered showers. High 37.
  • Tuesday-Partly to mostly sunny. high 42.

We’re north of any rain right now, which is definitely a good thing. We’ll have dry weather tonight and that will follow up through most of tomorrow. Light rain is how this whole thing should start either late tomorrow afternoon or Saturday evening.

From there, things get a little more sticky than it looked yesterday. What I know for sure is that the rain will change to snow overnight into Sunday morning. Also what hasn’t changed is that there’s still a good chance of accumulating snow on Sunday. All of these things are almost definite at this point.

What’s changed is the temperatures on Sunday. A lot of the computer models are confused. Some keep temperatures in the 30s with snow all day Sunday, while a few bring in enough warmth to mix the snow with rain or ice from time to time. Any mixing of precipitation types will definitely diminish our final snow total by the time the snow stops late Monday.

So, I’ve dropped my prediction, but only slightly as far as snowfall is concerned Saturday night through Monday. Right now, the Tri-Cities should end up at 3-5 inches of snow by the end of the whole thing. Up in the mountains (where Winter Storm Warnings are up right now), there could be lots more than that since it should stay all snow up there. Higher elevations could get up to a foot of snow before it’s all said and done. There are possible higher amounts near Asheville, too.

The confidence in this forecast, I have to say, is minimal. Hopefully the next computer runs will be a bit clearer, and I’ll get on the blog tomorrow to bring a new forecast.

So what to do for now? Prepare for the worst. What do you need if we get 6-8 inches of snow? Make a list and go get it by Saturday evening, then be where you’re going to be before snow starts piling up. That way you’ll be ready, whether we get flurries or half a foot of snow or more.

Also, stay tuned to the blog and follow me on Twitter @wxmc. I’ll have updates here before the storm, most updates will be on Twitter during it, and then a final snow report will be posted here after things are all said and done.

More updates are forthcoming throughout the weekend!

Categories: Daily Forecast, Winter

Weekend Snow Update #1

December 6, 2018 Comments off

Posts have been running all over social media about the chances of snow this weekend. Well, as usual, those folks posting computer model forecasts have brought about all the questions about this coming storm system coming out of Texas.

First, the forecast for the next few days. Nothing exciting, maybe a few flurries tonight or Friday morning. We’ll have mostly cloudy skies otherwise, all the way through the majority of Saturday. That’s when the rain should begin, late in the day. We’ll have highs in the low 40’s and lows near 30 between now and then.

As mentioned, rain starts Saturday either late in the afternoon or early evening. That will change to snow overnight for all of us. Of course, in the higher elevations, that change will happen quicker, and they’ll get more snow. Everything should be fine for most of the area through Saturday evening.

That’s not the case for Sunday, it appears. Snow will likely accumulate starting Saturday night, and for most of the day on Sunday before tapering off on Monday. The National Weather Service office in Morristown has us under a Winter Storm Watch effective Saturday night through Monday at noon. That will likely get upgraded to a warning by Friday.

So…how much snow? You may have seen folks online post computer models showing anything from a foot in the Tri-Cities to 23 inches in Boone. Those models take in every single bit of moisture in the atmosphere and dump that into the amount of precipitation that’s possible. The mere falling of snow and rain will diminish those numbers to some degree, as will any rain to snow transitions that happen.

Considering all of that, Saturday night through Monday could see 4-6 inches of snow in the Tri-Cities, with less snow south and west of the I-81/I-26 interchange. In the Southwest Virginia and North Carolina mountains, 8 inches to a foot of snow is possible. It’s not a linear transition from the valleys to the mountains, so your mileage may vary at each individual location. Some may stop at 3 or less, and others might pop up at 8 or 10 inches.

Power outages are possible, especially with higher snow totals. Temperatures look to stay in the 30’s for the most part, so that could be wet snow. That kind of snow is heavier than the fluffy stuff in colder conditions, which may result in trees coming down on power lines or that kind of thing. That’s the big worry in situations like this. I don’t think widespread power outages are likely, but have a plan for what to do in case that becomes a reality.

The bottom line is, snow is coming, so take the next couple days to prepare, getting supplies you need by the end of Saturday so you’re good to go. By all means, be wherever you want to be Saturday evening so you don’t get stuck somewhere you don’t want to be on Sunday.

I’ll post updates to the forecast here periodically through the storm, so make sure to bookmark the blog!

Categories: Winter

December 3, 2018 #TriCitiesWx Forecast

December 3, 2018 Comments off

It’s been warmer than average the past couple days! That made for a great start to December, but we’ll see clouds mute that start in the coming days, helping to bring cooler weather back in. Welcome to the Tri-Cities Weather Blog forecast through Friday!

There’s a lot of noise about this weekend, thanks to certain people on Facebook. There’s a lot of uncertainty about that, and there’s a week to get through before we even worry about that. So we’ll start with the outlook through Friday:

  • Tonight-Increasing clouds, with a few flurries after midnight. Low 32.
  • Tuesday-Mostly cloudy, some sprinkles or flurries. Highs near 40.
  • Tuesday night-Clouds, with sprinkles or flurries. Low 28.
  • Wednesday-Mostly cloudy with some snow showers. High 35.
  • Thursday-Partly cloudy. High 44.
  • Friday-Partly to mostly cloudy, a small chance of rain. High 44.

Clouds will be moving in from the northwest tonight, and that’s the change from 10-15 degrees above average to that far below average in the coming days. Those clouds will be here through Wednesday, with occasional light snow flurries or sprinkles off and on throughout.

We’ll kick the clouds out on Thursday for a nice day, and most of Friday should be cool and rain-free. It does look like there’s a small chance some rain could creep in late on Friday.

That’s thanks to a system that’s gotten a lot of news on Facebook recently, talking about possible snow this coming weekend. That system will come from the southwest, it appears, but that’s basically all we know at this point. When, how far north, what temperatures will be, and all of that are very uncertain right now.

In fact, for every computer model people posted showing next weekend’s snow forecast yesterday, there’s one today that says it’s either going to rain or miss our area to the south altogether. So don’t pay too much attention to the weekend right now. Let’s give it a few days, and by then we’ll hopefully have a better idea as to what kind of precipitation we get, how much, and when.

So for now, prepare for colder weather and some flurries in the coming days. Have a great Tuesday!

Categories: Daily Forecast
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