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October 9, 2016 #TriCitiesWx Forecast

October 9, 2016 Comments off

Hurricane Matthew never really did turn like we thought, and the effects of that were rain and flooding in parts of North Carolina. Now, that storm is gone, and we’ll have calm weather for a while…good news for the East Coast! Welcome to a quick Tri-Cities Weather Blog forecast for this week!

It’s been a cool day, as we didn’t see 70 in the Tri-Cities, at least as far as the airport is concerned. High pressure will keep our weather dry in the coming days, so here’s an outlook-only forecast through Friday:

  • Tonight-Mostly clear, fog in spots in the morning. Low 38.
  • Monday-Mostly sunny. High 72.
  • Monday night-Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows near 40.
  • Tuesday-Mostly sunny. High 75.
  • Wednesday-Partly to mostly sunny. High 77.
  • Thursday-Partly cloudy, a couple rain showers possible. High 75.
  • Friday-Partly cloudy. High 73.

High pressure pretty much keeps any weather away for most of the week, with a cold front moving through on Thursday, bringing a small chance of rain. We’ll have more chances for rain possible on Saturday, but I’ll have details on that as the week goes on.

Hurricane Matthew has gone what we call “post-tropical,” which means essentially that it’s merged with our regular low pressure systems and has weakened a lot. It will continue out to sea in the coming days, finally leaving us alone after a lot of rain from Florida to Virginia. I’m fairly certain we won’t have another Hurricane Matthew, as that name should be retired.

Fall has finally arrived for sure, with these lows close to 40 the next couple days. I’ll have a new forecast tomorrow afternoon around 6pm…if not sooner. Have a great week!

Categories: Daily Forecast, Tropical

October 7, 2016 #TriCitiesWx Forecast

October 7, 2016 Comments off

Clouds rolled in today, and it’s been a dreary, drizzly day. The clouds are indeed thanks to Hurricane Matthew, but we’re far enough away (with a mountain range between us and the hurricane) to where the effects won’t be too dangerous. Besides, we need the rain! Welcome to the Tri-Cities Weather Blog forecast for this weekend!

It’s pretty cool for most of us, with the mountains in the 60’s and the Tri-Cities in the low 70’s today. There’s not as much rain toward Knoxville, so there’s warmer air in the low 80’s down that way. Temperatures will drop thanks to a cold front moving through in the morning, then we’ll see more dry weather. Here’s the outlook:

  • Tonight-Cloudy and windy at times with scattered rain showers. Low 63.
  • Saturday-Mostly cloudy, with a few rain showers through early afternoon. High 74.
  • Saturday night-Decreasing clouds and cooler. Low 43.
  • Sunday-Mostly sunny. High 68.
  • Monday-Mostly sunny, highs near 70.
  • Tuesday-Mostly sunny. High 73.

A cold front enters West Tennessee and Kentucky tonight, and will march through the states by morning. That might help add to our rain totals, but the front is mainly dry. What the front will do is sweep clouds and rain from Hurricane Matthew out of here late in the day and overnight.

From there, high pressure resumes dominance over our weather, and we’ll have a sunny and cool day Sunday. We’ll warm up to close to average each day on Monday and Tuesday, with sunshine as well.

As for Hurricane Matthew:

hurricane-matthew-100716-1744There’s said hurricane, about 50 miles east of Jacksonville at just before 6 PM. It hasn’t made landfall yet, but has flirted with the coast of Florida since yesterday. There has been a lot of wind and rain for the entire Florida peninsula, and that’s causing issues for those who rode out the storms there.

Meanwhile, Matthew will move up the coast, likely just missing Georgia as it starts to turn a little. There is a chance of landfall near Charleston early Saturday, and then it will slowly make a right turn.

After that, Matthew’s track starts to interact a little more with Tropical Storm Nicole, which is off to the east in the Atlantic, and not going to touch land unless it hits Bermuda. Matthew will turn toward the east, and then that interaction with nearly stationary Nicole will shoot it southward, while Nicole moves north.

The good news about that interaction is that from all indications, it will cost Matthew a lot of its energy. It’s still a Category 2 hurricane, but it’s likely to lose hurricane status by Monday. Then, it’ll move toward the Bahamas once again as a tropical storm or depression, and it might cross Florida sometime next week. Meanwhile, Nicole will be hooking a right and heading away from the United States.

There are still dangerous times ahead over the next day or so from North Florida through Georgia and at least South Carolina. Storm surge and flooding rains and damaging winds will be happening throughout the weekend, regardless of the strength of Matthew.

Thanks for checking here for the forecast! After a homework assignment about the tropics last night and constant watch over Matthew, I might just take a break tomorrow for a little while. The Cubs and Vols are playing in important games, so I’ll be busy yelling at my TV for sure.

Hope you’re able to relax some in the coming days. Have a great weekend!

Categories: Daily Forecast, Tropical

October 5, 2016 #TriCitiesWx Forecast

October 5, 2016 Comments off

Dry weather continues here, while folks along the coast of the Southeast are preparing for Hurricane Matthew. It’s going to be relatively quiet here, so we’ll spend a lot of time on Matthew in today’s Tri-Cities Weather Blog forecast. Welcome!

Here at home, it’s been a nice day, with temperatures in the mid 70’s around mid-afternoon in the Tri-Cities. Up in the mountains, they’re in the mid 60’s, a nice cool day. To our south around Knoxville, they’ve arrived at the low 80’s already. A cold front will bring temperatures down, and maybe kick Matthew out to sea in the coming days. Here’s the outlook:

  • Tonight-Mostly clear, but patchy fog is possible late. Lows near 50.
  • Thursday-Mostly sunny. High 80.
  • Thursday night-Partly cloudy, low 54.
  • Friday-Partly to mostly cloudy, a small chance of rain in the afternoon. High 75.
  • Saturday-Partly cloudy, a few scattered showers. High 73.
  • Sunday-Sunny and cooler, high 68.
  • Monday-Mostly sunny. Highs near 70.

Our weather here in Northeast Tennessee, Southwest Virginia, and parts of Western North Carolina will likely stay dry for most of the next five days. In the mountains, winds may pick up if Matthew gets too close. A cold front will move through Saturday morning, so starting Friday evening we could see some rain showers.

After that, we’ll have more fall-like conditions to end the weekend, and as we start next work week. Looks to be just below average for this time of year.

nhc-matthew-100516

Here’s the latest look at Hurricane Matthew from the National Hurricane Center…click the map for a bigger image.

The big change in the track since this time yesterday, reflects a model forecast that started yesterday morning. The European computer model started showing Matthew turning to the right into the Atlantic yesterday, and the NHC grabbed onto that idea and have phased it into the forecast. Recently, the GFS model (the best of the American weather prediction systems) also got on board with that curve.

In the coming days, we’ll see Matthew go from the Bahamas, where it is right now, toward the east coast of Florida. Some computers say landfall might happen near Orlando or Daytona, others keep the center of circulation offshore. Either way, the storm will be nasty for those folks, bringing onshore and from the sky lots and lots of water. Flooding will definitely be a concern in Florida, and probably Georgia and South Carolina this weekend.

The cold front that moves through our area Saturday may have a role in spinning Matthew away from the coast earlier than expected. If that’s the case, it should spare folks from Norfolk and to the north from the worst of the storm. There’s a long way to go for that one, and most of the hurricane models still see Matthew going up the coast.

Either way, there are five big takeaways for me right now:

  1. If you have anyone or anything important to you from Miami to the Outer Banks, make sure things are done to keep them safe or get them out of there. Evacuations are already happening in South Carolina, and they’re even considering making all four lanes of Interstate 26 northbound to get people out of there. Similar stories will surely be told for Florida and Georgia, and likely North Carolina as well.
  2. As for the Tri-Cities weather, other than some extra wind gusts, Matthew probably won’t do much for us except keep us dry thanks to the subsidence (high pressure) around the storm. Things like this are why October is our driest month. Folks in the North Carolina mountains will see stronger gusts and maybe some rain, too…but nothing like the coast.
  3. Prepare for things to get postponed this weekend. If you’re a Virginia Tech fan, the Hokies may or may not play North Carolina this weekend in Chapel Hill. The Dolphins game against the Titans in Miami might get moved as well. Sure, these are small issues compared to the big impact of a storm skirting the coast for as long as Matthew will likely do that, but people outside of the coast will still wonder about these types of things.
  4. Be in prayer for those who have endured the storm in Haiti, Jamaica, Cuba and the Bahamas, as well as those preparing in the United States. The countries that have already been hit have sustained lots of damage, and Haiti appears to be the worst hit right now. Matthew will be somewhat weakened by the time it is near South Carolina, which should be some good news for the coast. However, weather will be ugly there starting tonight in Florida and into the weekend up the coast.
  5. There’s still a chance Matthew may go up the East Coast instead of curving. Tropical Storm Nicole is just to the East of Matthew, and that storm may do a loop as well. If it doesn’t loop, lots of people will experience Hurricane Matthew (or what’s left of it) into next week. And if it does curve, Florida might be in play again next week, too.

Thanks for checking here for the forecast! I know this has been a long one, but when there’s a Category 3 hurricane headed for our country, it’s important to make sure everyone knows what’s going on. Even if nobody here will be affected, people knowing people who are out there can spread the word, and if that saves a life, an extra 350 words or so in the blog is worth it!

Categories: Daily Forecast, Tropical

October 4, 2016 #TriCitiesWx Forecast

October 4, 2016 Comments off

On today’s blog, I’ll deviate from normal programming for a bit, as the big weather story is Hurricane Matthew. That storm won’t bother us too much, but it’s worth talking about. Never fear, the forecast is always first, and it’s coming up!

Today had a lot of clouds, but not much other than that. The sky has cleared a bit more here in Bristol late this afternoon, and as we head toward 6pm, a cool, dry night is ahead. Here’s the outlook:

  • Tonight-Partly cloudy. Low 52.
  • Wednesday-Partly cloudy. High 80.
  • Wednesday night-Partly cloudy. Low 48.
  • Thursday-Partly to mostly sunny. High 79.
  • Friday-Partly cloudy. High 77.
  • Saturday-Partly to mostly cloudy, with a few scattered showers possible. High 72.
  • Sunday-Partly cloudy and cooler. High 65.

Clouds have kept us a bit cooler than anticipated today, but it’s still been a nice day outside. We’ll have three more of those before a cold front starts pushing extra clouds in here late Friday.

From there, the cold front will be weakening as it approaches. So I don’t think Saturday will have a lot of rain, but rain showers are possible off and on. Then we’ll cool off into the 60’s to finish the weekend this Sunday.

nhc-matthew-100416

This is Hurricane Matthew. It’s a Category 4 storm at this point, with sustained winds near the middle of the storm around 140 mph. It’s a very dangerous storm, and should hit Cuba this evening after it made landfall in Haiti last night. The northeastern part of Cuba will likely get the brunt of this storm, as the winds come in off the waters to the north.

As the track indicates, Matthew will go through the Bahamas in the coming days, emerging just east of Miami Wednesday afternoon. From South Florida up the coast, you see what we call a “cone.” This is NOT showing the area of the storm’s impact. Rather, it shows the degree of uncertainty of the forecast. Basically, the National Hurricane Center (where that image was created) says Matthew could go out to sea and miss the United States altogether, or it could make landfall anywhere from Georgia to North Carolina.

Regardless of the track, if you know anyone from Miami to Norfolk to potentially as far north as New York, they will need to follow Matthew closely. Give them a call and let them know. The farther south they are along the East Coast, the more danger they may be in, and sooner. Anyone in the Bahamas should’ve been gone a long time ago, but still may have time to get out of there.

Interaction with land (Cuban mountains, the islands, and the East Coast) will dampen Matthew down from a Category 4 to maybe as low as a Category 2. The middle of this track shows possible landfall near the North Carolina/South Carolina border Saturday morning. That could change, though. The bottom line is, anyone along the East Coast needs to watch this storm, and I know a lot of people in this area may have interests that direction. If you do, get prepared for Matthew. I’ll be watching it intently in the coming days.

That discussion will suffice instead of almanac info for now, since there’s been no rain for this month and we’re 7-8 degrees above average at the moment. We’ll drop about that far below average for early October once we get to Sunday.

Thanks for checking here for the forecast, have a great Wednesday!

Categories: Daily Forecast, Tropical

October 3, 2016 #TriCitiesWx Forecast

October 3, 2016 Comments off

There have been a few clouds around, but nothing much going on today weather wise. While not far away there will be a lot going on, it looks like we’ll stay dry for much of the rest of the week. Welcome to the Tri-Cities Weather Blog forecast for tonight through Friday!

Temperatures have been nice today, with an official high of 79 degrees at the Tri-Cities Airport. Late this afternoon, Jefferson, North Carolina, was at 64 degrees, with most of the rest of us in the 70’s or close to that. Later in the blog, it’s map time! That comes after the outlook:

  • Tonight-Partly cloudy. Low 54.
  • Tuesday-Mostly sunny. High 81.
  • Tuesday night-Partly cloudy. Low 54.
  • Wednesday-Sunny. Highs near 80.
  • Thursday-Mostly sunny. Highs near 80.
  • Friday-Partly to mostly sunny, with a small chance of rain. High 78.

 

 

Here is the QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Forecast) from the NWS’ Weather Prediction Center from now until next Monday. There’s a big dry spot, and we’re right at the East end of that. To our east, there are lots of dark colors and red colors. That’s the effect of Hurricane Matthew…more on that in a minute.

The reason for that map is to show that in the next week, not much is going to happen here. Yes, a cold front is coming, but it won’t be here until Saturday. By then, a lot of its moisture will be gone, having spent itself out over the Plains. So what rain we get will be minimal. October is normally our driest month of the year, so this isn’t totally surprising.

We’ll have sunny days and partly cloudy nights this week, with highs close to 80, and lows in the mid 50’s. There is a small chance of rain late Friday as the cold front approaches, and as the hurricane gets closer.

As for Matthew, it’s about to hit Haiti, or just to the west of that part of that island. It will then run over Cuba, before impacting the Bahamas. From there, it’s a big question mark as to exactly where the storm will hit. More recent computers put landfall in Eastern North Carolina or the Outer Banks this weekend. If that happens, rain chances might bump up a bit, but not much. Eastern North Carolina is quite a ways away, so it’s likely that Matthew won’t impact us unless it makes landfall in South Carolina.

Meanwhile, we have a lot of sunshine to enjoy, so get out there and have fun! It is October, so we won’t be seeing 78-80 degree weather much longer! Have a great Tuesday!

  • Tri-Cities Almanac Info
    • Temperatures
      • Sunday: High 76, Low 52.
      • Today: High 79, Low 52.
      • Average for early October: Highs in the low 70’s, lows in the upper 40’s.
    • Precipitation
      • Yesterday, today, October to Date: None.
      • 2016 to Date: 26.73″, 5.85″ below average.
    • Sunset tonight, 7:09 PM
    • Sunset tomorrow, 7:28 AM.
Categories: Daily Forecast, Tropical
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